Integrate, Hedge, & Wait: A U.S. Grand Strategy for the Post-George W. Bush Era
In geopolitical discourse, there is a common strand of thinking that identifies the Eurasian landmass as the centre of political competition between great powers. In 1904, the British geographer Halford Mackinder labelled it (in addition to Africa) the “World Island,” which, if dominated by any one power, would present a resource base of such proportions that no combination of other states could defeat it. In 1996, Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former National Security Adviser to U.S. President Jimmy Carter, called the supercontinent a “grand chessboard,” on which the West – and in particular, the United States – should seek to expand Western influence through the spread of our ideals and norms. And, in the current decade, the geostrategic thinker Thomas P.M. Barnett has argued for a conceptualization of the world that bifurcates the globe into two camps: the integrating core and the non-integrating “gap.” The gap, naturally, covers most of Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. Interestingly, Barnett (writing in 2004) included Russia and China in his integrating core, convinced at the time that both Eurasian powers were committed to a global order wherein the connectivity – and thus interdependence – between states would preclude the revival of great power competition.
In 2008, the two Eurasian powers demonstrated that their commitment to the norms and practices of a broadly Western world order was superficial at best. In August, Russia invaded neighbouring Georgia, incensed that the West would continue to “meddle” in its “backyard.” Earlier that year, the Economist quoted Russia’s Ambassador to NATO Dmitri Rogozin explaining Moscow’s antipathy toward the West’s actions in its “near abroad”: “We made peace with our neighbor. Then he says, 'Is it all right if I use your garage?' Then he says, 'Is it a problem if my friend lives in your place?' Then he says, 'Do you mind if I sleep with your wife?' When we protest, we are told we have no right of veto.” Of course, identifying the sovereign states bordering the Russian Federation as items of ownership – “your garage,” “your place,” and “your wife” – is more revealing of Russia’s own anachronistic mindset than it is of Western actions along its borders.
In March of 2008, protests erupted in Tibet and adjacent regions of China. The government in Beijing, exhorting the world community to respect its sovereignty within the territorial boundaries of its one-party state, cracked down harshly, ignoring pleas from the rest of the world – and the West in particular – to respect ephemeral principles like human rights. Naturally, the Chinese, worried for their territorial integrity and the demonstrative effect an autonomous Tibet would have on its restive Xinjiang province and Taiwan, paid no heed to human rights activists and developed world governments. China continues to participate in the global economy, not seeking to subvert a system from which it benefits, but its commitment to the principles and norms that underpin that system is increasingly questionable.
These two states – Russia and China – ought to be at the heart of Western foreign policy thinking in the next few decades: Russia because its activity threatens the European experiment with post-sovereignty; China because it stands to be the greatest geopolitical challenger to the West since the Soviet Union. Neither threatens to dominate Eurasia while they consolidate their territorial empires (the two Chechen wars being an indication of this in Russia, the repression and Sino-fying of Tibet and Xinjiang in China), but Western grand strategy ought to account for their growing estrangement with the norms and ideals that animate the Western world order.
I therefore propose the following inelegant formulation of Western grand strategy with regards to the two Eurasian powers: Integrate, Hedge, & Wait.
Integrate
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Clinton administration sought to enmesh the Russian Federation in a series of treaties and multilateral institutions, including arms control deals, the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, and membership in the OSCE and Council of Europe. However, Moscow perceived the expansion of NATO into Central and Eastern Europe as well as NATO intervention in Kosovo as a direct threat to its national security and has since fallen away from the West. The Bush administration sought to make China a “global stakeholder,” but it let its East Asia policy be driven too much by the U.S.-Japan alliance, which managed to alienate both Beijing and Seoul. American military bases in Central Asia also unnecessarily pushed China and Russia together in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Integration should be more nuanced.
The West ought to tip its hat – rhetorically and substantively – to integrating both powers into the global economic order while respecting their territorial sovereignty. For instance, a dedicated push for Russian accession to the WTO (which hinges on the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment in the U.S. Congress) would do more to grow a domestic constituency for integration than the current drift in Russia-Western relations. As to China, engaging on areas of mutual concern like energy security, nuclear non-proliferation, and economic openness would continue the construction of business-like relations between Beijing and Washington. The relocation of a few UN agencies from Geneva to Hong Kong would also have useful symbolism.
The goal is to see both Russia and China succeed economically on terms that do not threaten the West.
Hedge
What happens if integration doesn’t bring the supposed benefits or happens at too slow a pace to prevent a xenophobic Russia from invading another neighbour or a nationalistic China from striking at Taiwan? Geopolitical coalitions in a state-based system may seem a thing of the past, but they are still an important instrument for shaping behaviour in Eurasia. Two coalitions in particular are critical to the hedging element of this grand strategy.
The first is the Atlantic alliance – NATO – and its promise of keeping a Europe dabbling in post-sovereignty (Robert Cooper’s post-modern Europe) safe from the increasingly belligerent rhetoric and policy coming out of Moscow. Renewing this alliance is critical not only for European security but also for protecting the genesis of a new conception of public order that has already had a stabilizing effect on world politics (look to the growing number of regional organizations – the African Union, Mercosur, ECOWAS, ASEAN, etc. – that are inspired by the European Union’s success).
The second is the United States’ growing web of alliances and partnerships in South and East Asia. The U.S.-Japan alliance is a keystone in the balance of power of Northeast Asia, but American relationships with Australia and Indonesia are also critical. The most important recent development is the growing partnership between the United States and India, which offers yet another important hedge against potential Chinese opportunism. There are strong constituencies in both the United States and India for the expansion of this partnership, perhaps short of an outright alliance, which will continue to factor into Beijing’s geopolitical calculations.
Hedging is about shaping behaviours. It is not about defeating potential adversaries, but rather, preparing for the distant eventuality that a potential adversary may attempt to alter the status quo through strength of arms. A credible partnership between two strong states (or a group of states, as with NATO) changes the calculations of political elites in potentially adversarial countries, buying time for the integration strategy to change the balance of incentives between cooperation and confrontation.
Wait
Since both China and Russia are territorial empires, neither country is sustainable in its current form. China is a one-party state attempting to transition to a stable political and economic order while facing massive social dislocation and multiple separatist pressures. Russia is an increasingly authoritarian country that spans eleven time zones with separatist pressures and an unhelpful demographic profile – a shrinking Russian Orthodox population and a burgeoning Muslim one. Neither is internally coherent. Neither offers an ideological prescription that animates the imaginations of large populations elsewhere in the world, let alone its own: Russia’s petroleum-fuelled authoritarian capitalism excites some Central Asian leaders, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Bolivia’s Evo Morales; China’s one-party market state excites Singapore’s government and a raft of other authoritarians at best. Neither offers an alternative to Western democratic capitalism, merely variations on that theme.
However, the internal coherence of Western values like respect for the individual, economic and political liberty, and the rule of law makes them highly attractive to vast populations, including apparently many Russians and Chinese, as long as they are not imposed through strength of arms. The success of many of these values has been witnessed in diverse societies and cultures like Japan, South Korea, Eastern Europe, Turkey, Chile, South Africa, Botswana, Ghana, India, and elsewhere to a greater or lesser extent. There is nothing that suggests Western values are territorially and/or culturally exclusive.
The strategy of waiting recognizes that Western values have the strongest normative force in international affairs today. Waiting also suggests that the West is not directly threatened by Russia or China but must exercise prudence while both societies evolve. Three outcomes may obtain.
The first is that Russia and/or China collapses due to its internal contradictions: a market-based economy grafted on a centralized, bureaucratized, authoritarian government. This would have terrible consequences for global stability and for the West in general. No Western government should wish this upon either country. The strategy of integration is meant to prevent this scenario by helping the two countries’ economies grow.
The second is that Russia and/or China seeks to put off reform of their societies and redirect their public’s frustration toward external goals, probably accompanied by war. This is not an uncommon feature of international relations. The strategy of hedging is intended to preclude the development of external aggression as a safety valve for domestic disquiet.
The third is that Russia and/or China addresses their internal contradictions by gradually adopting a more coherent political-economic system, broadly in conformity with the spirit of Western norms of governance. This would likely occur in conjunction with multinational integration and the economic growth obtained therefrom. This is the ideal scenario.
In the final analysis, the grand strategy outlined above is a mixture of carrots (integrate), sticks (hedge), and patience (wait), the last of which is too often in short supply in Western democracies. The intention is to make the path toward economic and political integration with the West the least problematic for Beijing and Moscow. It is meant to shape behaviours in ways that benefit the West, but more importantly, benefit the populations of China and Russia that deserve to live in societies where the individual is not only protected by the state, but protected from the state.
Matt Stone is an MSc candidate in Global Governance & Diplomacy at St Antony’s College, Oxford University. He is writing his master’s thesis on the multilateral governance of the global oil trade.